Predicting Mortgage Rates: Your Guide to Buying Smart in 2026

Mortgage Rates Are Trending Down — Slowly

Mortgage rates are finally easing up, but the days of 3% loans are gone. If you’re planning to buy or refinance in 2026, the key is knowing what’s realistic — and acting strategically.

Most expert forecasts from Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association point to 30-year fixed rates landing between 5.5% and 6.5% by late 2026.

• Fannie Mae: Around 5.9%
• MBA: 6.0–6.5%
• Others: Roughly 6%

That’s a big improvement from the 7%+ range we saw in 2024–2025, but it’s not a rate crash.

What’s Keeping Rates Where They Are

1. Inflation: Cooling but still above target — keeps long-term Treasury yields elevated.
2. Federal Reserve: Even with rate cuts, mortgage rates take time to follow.
3. Housing Supply: Slowly improving, helping balance prices and affordability.
4. Market Sentiment: Investors want proof inflation’s under control before fully backing off.

Put simply: steady improvement, not overnight change.

How to Play It Smart as a Buyer

• Lock strategically. If you see a rate near 6%, that’s already solid.
• Don’t hold out for 4%. The 5% range is the new “win.”
• Think payment, not rate. Choose a loan that fits your life — 15-year fixed, ARM, or conventional.
• Plan for a future refi. When rates slip lower, you’ll already own and can reposition easily.
• Buy value. Waiting for a fantasy rate can cost you the right home.

The 2026 Outlook

• Early 2026: 6.3–6.6% average
• Mid 2026: 6.0–6.2%
• Late 2026: 5.8–6.0% (best borrowers, stable economy)

Expect balance, not a boom. Buyers who act early will likely benefit most from upcoming rate relief.

The Sonoma County Takeaway

For Petaluma, Santa Rosa, and surrounding areas, home affordability will depend more on inventory and pricing than rates alone. Even a half-percent drop can make a major difference in payment, but low supply will keep competition strong.

If the home and payment fit your budget, waiting for the perfect rate is rarely the winning play.

Ready to Buy or Refinance Smarter?

At eMortgages.com, I help clients across California — from first-time buyers to investors — make clear, data-driven mortgage decisions. Let’s find your best rate, structure your loan right, and prepare you to refinance when the time’s right.

Call or text Jehoshua Shapiro, Certified Mortgage Advisor, at (707) 235-2812
or email js@emortgages.com to start your 2026 mortgage strategy.